Wheat token & treasury acquisition crunch numbers

Following up with comments on telegram I have crunched some numbers to hopefully get a better overview on the latest moves.

My first concern is that such a move is not being approved/voted/passsed through a MIP; which is common sense and being the founders most probably holding big on GRO, would almost guaranteed approval (so then, why not?)

However not having done so and having proceeded without any voting/approval, in my honest opinion, undertakes value to the project (and GRO value too, of which I’m holder) in the market. I think healthy criticism is good and even the brightest minds need some assessment in order to run projects as complex as this one. I also think it’s not late to make things passed/approved through a MIP and properly discussed.

I also hope that crunching the numbers sheds some light into some things that might have not been considered so far. Upon today:

  • Wheat treasury (worth around 800k USD in AVAX and 250k USD in BSC, gross numbers) is being acquired by GRO treasury
  • Wheat token is liquidated from the project including all the features that had been announced so far
  • Compensation and swap rates have been announced arbitrarily on this Announcement thread without any further debate on GRO holders about the compensation/acquisition mechanism
  • All numbers come from Wheat web pages (avax and bsc), might share/attach screenshots if needed

Wheat treasury acquisition number crunch

  • Wheat avax treasury has ranged around 750k-850k lasts weeks. Lets say its 800k usd
  • Wheat bsc treasury has ranged arond 350k-200k lasts weeks. Lets take 250k usd value
  • Wheat in BSC is around 500k units (rounded numbers)
  • Wheat in AVAX is around 100k units (rounded numbers)
  • Wheat in BSC is backed by 0.5 usd/wheat in treasury (rounded numbers)
  • Wheat in AVAX is backed by 8 usd/wheat in treasury (rounded numbers)
  • Around 1.05 Million USD (as of today) worth of LP Wheat treasuries (AVAX + BSC) is being transferred towards GRO treasury.
  • Wheat BSC is being liquidated: 500k in BSC at 1.92 usd/wheat = 960k usd but it’s only backed by 250k usd treasury
  • Wheat AVAX is being liquidated: 100k in AVAX at 5.47 usd/wheat = 547k usd, backed by 800k usd treasury
  • Wheat AVAX & BSC tokens are valued at 1.5 Million USD
  • Wheat AVAX & BSC treasury value is only 1.05 Million USD
  • Wheat tokens are being liquidated with GRO valued at 21.3 usd, which provides a 490k discount over GRO market average (around 13-14 usd/gro) last weeks
  • With GRO 50% overpricing Wheat tokens are being paid around 1 Million USD which matches the Wheat treasury value (1.05 Million usd)
  • However Wheat BSC is being paid almost 4X its treasury value
  • And Wheat AVAX is being paid like 0.6X its treasury value
  • There is 20k MOR airdrop on each chain (40k MOR-usd) not being considered, since considering the amounts, its peanuts (yet it’s there)

Questions arising

  • The AVAX Wheat has lost most value last months, yet the liquidation of Wheat AVAX takes a good amount of losses to its holders while providing 4X on BSC treasury acquisition. By all means this seems quite unfair for AVAX Wheat holders. Maybe the Wheat avax liquidation prices should be re-thought to take some balance to this

  • The value taken for GRO at 21.3 usd/gro seems arbitrarily set, an average would sound much more consistent, even long term average would seem to have sense

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Honestly it’s hard to argue with any of that. I’m sure Safe or Mike may explain it a little more detail as to exactly what the funds are being used for.

I do agree it gives the ecosystem a lot more value if the guys basically running the DOA take on board the thoughts and worries any investors may have, so I’m sure all the above will be addressed in full.

I have already made my thoughts heard on the TG as have many others. I think the ratio and compensation needs to be addressed for all wheat holders but will accept it if it’s the only way forward.

Personally I don’t think the 20k MOR for each shouldn’t even be paid out as it’s basically a slap in the face for long term holders I would rather it was put to better use like marketing. Let’s be honest it’s peanuts for most of us compared to what we invested and lost in terms of value while holding wheat long term as we were constantly requested to do.

Yes in hindsight the ones that sold were the smart ones and I accept I’m responsible for my own money but if being true to an ecosystem by trying to build rather than sell gets u more or less laughed at then that’s not going to give any new investors any reason to come and hold Gro even with big APR,s being offered etc. IMHO.

I for one won’t be getting caught with my pants down again even tho I Trust the team, I can assure you all I will be taking profits when I think it’s viable to do so, instead of building a pot for others to come in on the short term and get the same benefits as a long term holder.

Will all the above said I’m looking forward to actually seeing what the next move looks like and hope I’m a months time the value has GROwn so much all the above won’t matter.

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One thing we can all agree on is WHEAT needs to be discontinued. Whether or not liquidity mining is included in the future of DeFi remains to be seen, but there are bigger players in the space that have the funds to see that out. Growth DeFi focusing on its flagship product MOR and its governance token GRO is the correct move because of lowered dev time costs and marketability in terms of easier to understand product offerings.

In response to OP, I do not think draining treasury funds is the greatest path forward. It is a short-term solution with negative long-term consequences. Neither do I think the votes are there to get such a proposal passed because, inherently, those with the most stake in AVAX WHEAT probably have less AVAX GRO to begin with. Additionally, WHEAT has always been the riskiest play in terms of price volatility and, in hindsight, default risk, so the fact that the team is even willing to do a swap is very respectable. When GRO reaches new heights… yes not having a few dozen extra GRO due to the swap ratio may sting a bit… but it’s pennies on the dollars. We know what they say about being penny wise and dollar foolish.

I say take the swap (BTW $20 GRO is still cheap…), and we look to the future. I’ve gone through this in my head multiple times, as I’m sure the team has, and there is no good solution that doesn’t negatively affect some group of people. If anything, this is a true test of loyalty as I’ve seen multiple people who I thought would hodl till the end actually capitulate now because they didn’t get maybe a few hundred extra bucks. Honestly it might be better that they left now, clearly they were only in it for the money.

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